Monday, September 26, 2011

A look back at your quarterbacks

I entered my fantasy football draft with the intent on waiting until at least Round 6 or 7 to take a quarterback. I liked the idea of Matt Ryan, Matt Schaub or even Josh Freeman being my No. 1 QB. Heck, I'd have even settled for Sam Bradford or Matthew Stafford in my 10-team league.

But I got to Round 4 and Tom Brady was danging in front of me, waiting for me to snatch him off the pile and put him on my team. Obviously, through three weeks (including his "down" week with four touchdown passes), I'm very grateful I decided to ignore my brain and let my gut do its work.

Brady is the No. 1 signal caller in fantasy football and is one of only two QBs who have surpassed 100 fantasy points (Monday night's game not included). He's turned out to be a "steal" for me, and there are many fantasy players out there who wish they had similar success.

Michael Vick and Aaron Rodgers were considered the two darlings of your fantasy draft, and both were either a first-round pick or at least an early second-round pick in your draft - especially in 12 or 14-team leagues. Rodgers is making his owners happy, ranking fifth among QBs through week 5. Vick, on the other hand, has done what many feared: got injured. Whether his hand is bruised or broken, his owners have to be wondering why they decided to take Vick instead of a Darren McFadden or similar RB in Round 1.

Drew Brees, Brady and Philip Rivers were considered the "next tier" or QBs, and all three are living up to expectations. While Brady is blowing away the rest of the league, Brees is also over 100 points for the season while Rivers is struggling with four TDs against six interceptions.

The next grouping included Ryan, Schaub and Tony Romo - although Peyton Manning was somewhere in this group or above. Unfortunately for those owners, the pick turned out to be more high risk than high reward. He's out and it's likely for the season. Schaub got his opportunity to throw the ball all over Sunday and fulfilled his potential, Ryan has struggled and Romo's innards are in disarray.

Stafford is proving to be the true "steal." He's got nine touchdowns in three weeks against two interceptions. Calvin Johnson owners are enjoying his upswing immensely, and he was likely a backup on someone's roster after the draft. His shoulder is still in one piece, and as long as that is the case chances are he's going to make people happy he's on their roster.

Cam Newton is throwing his name into the steal mix. He's one of three QBs to surpass 1,000 yards in three weeks (Brees, Brady) and was likely undrafted or someone's "sleeper" pick in one of the last two rounds. Unless your team has Brady or Brees on it, it's almost impossible to keep Newton out of your lineup.

If it weren't for Newton, Ryan Fitzpatrick's name would be the talk of the fantasy world. He's got nine touchdowns in three weeks and has the Bills off to an improbable 3-0 start.

At this point, if you don't have a solid option at QB, you're struggling to find a name left out there that hasn't been scooped off the waiver wire. Fitzpatrick, Newton and Rex Grossman are gone, and they've probably been added at the expense of Kyle Orton or Matt Cassel. You don't want either of them, but at least they have some weapons. What's best for each of them is they're not on a good team and will likely be playing catch up often. Chances are Orton, Cassel and Tennesee's Matt Hasselbeck are going to put the ball in the air a lot in the third and fourth quarters. If you're desperate - and if you're even considering any of these names you are - they aren't the worst options.

Wednesday, September 21, 2011

Examine your bench

We're just two weeks into the fantasy football season, and whether you're 2-0, 1-1 or 0-2, you're undoubtedly wondering what can be done to improve your team. Even the unbeatens know there's always room for improvement.

Here's a few things to consider when making moves for your team this early.

1. Don't give up on someone without cause.
Yes, Mark Ingram has not gotten off to a tremendous start. His 91 rushing yards, no catches and no touchdowns in two weeks are likely discouraging. But keep in mind that the Saints have two new faces in their backfield in Ingram and Darren Sproles, so through two weeks - and a shortened offseason due to the lockout - the team is still trying to iron out roles. Give Ingram and others some time to get comfortable in a situation.

2. A stud is a stud, and a slow start doesn't change that.
Chris Johnson was a first-round pick despite missing the preseason with a contract holdout. In the first two weeks, the Titans' RB has less than 100 yards and has yet to find the end zone. But you drafted him in the first round for a reason, and two weeks do not eliminate all those points. Don't jump the gun and trade him for a Cedric Benson or Beanie Wells, because CJ is going to make you happy at some point, and chances are it's going to be soon.

3. Cut dead weight if need be.
Peyton Manning should not be on your roster unless you have no injury concerns and no need to add another player at any position. If you drafted Manning, hopefully you drafted a quality backup a la Josh Freeman and are at least in decent shape. But why hold onto someone who's going to simply bog down your roster? Unless you have ties to the Colts' trainer, you don't know when Manning's coming back - and the trainer likely doesn't know either. Take your chances with a high-upside, bottom-of-the-bench guy rather than a hobbled QB who likely isn't going to play - especially for a team that will struggle to win a game before he returns.

4. Don't be afraid to handcuff.
If you drafted Jamaal Charles, you're either elated you had Dexter McCluster and/or Thomas Jones on your roster. If you didn't have either, you're likely scouring the waiver wire for any ball carrier with the slightest bit of potential. If you own LeSean McCoy and have some flexibility on your roster, why keep a fifth receiver who is likely a questionable play anyway? Pick up Ronnie Brown and safeguard your first-round pick. Check your stud back's depth chart and see who No. 2 is.

5. Why bother with an aging vet when there's a rookie trying to fit in who can sit at the end of your bench?
Derrick Mason has given fantasy owners many reasons to get excited in the past, but he's up there in years. He's the third receiver on a team that in the past has shown a tendency to run the ball and run it some more. Meanwhile, a guy like Emmanuel Sanders is 24 and on the defending AFC champions' roster with Ben Roethlisberger throwing him the ball. The Steelers enjoyed passing last season, and with Hines Ward up there in years Sanders can turn out to be a high-upside WR3 or flex option.

6. Be careful dropping an injured player who has a chance to get back on the field.
When Danny Amendola dislocated his elbow in Week 1, most owners dropped the Rams' wideout. But each day it appears he's closer to coming back by midseason - if not sooner. If you have the space, keep a guy like Amendola or Marques Colston on your roster. If you can hang onto him for a few weeks, you're either going to get a boost in Week 6 or 7 or at least find a valuable bye-week fill-in just in time.

7. Don't click "accept" too soon.
Every trade and free agent pickup should at least get a moment or two of consideration. It's easy to drop a guy the second he's not producing or trade an underachieving player. But take a moment to say "will I hate myself for this?" If there's any hesitation, be wary. You may regret the move later and be unable to retrieve the released/traded player.

8. Trust your instincts.
In the end, you take full responsibility for your actions. You'll feel the effects of the move later that week or down the line. Don't get too hung up on the "experts," but do get hung up on your gut. Don't make a move just because someone said you should. If you don't like it, don't do it.

9. Don't second-guess.
It's easy to sit back later and fret over your roster move. Yes, bad things happen after a trade, but getting hung up on the past will do you no good in fantasy football. You made the move. If it isn't working, instead of whining, simply set your sights onto what can be done to fix the move.

10. Don't hang onto a guy too long because he's your "steal."
It's easy to get hung up on a guy just because you're seeking that "I told you so" moment. Yes, it was great when you picked up Arian Foster or Darren McFadden late last year and they turned into studs. It's not great when you're hanging onto Matt Cassel because you drafted him thinking he'd take a step forward. It's not going to happen for him this year, and if someone such as Andy Dalton or Ryan Fitzpatrick are on the waiver wire, please make that move. You don't get points for hanging onto draft picks who aren't paying dividends.

Tuesday, September 20, 2011

Rising to the top

Anyone can draft Tom Brady and reap the rewards of his hot start. 940 yards and seven touchdowns in two weeks are unexpected, but no one out there thought they wouldn't get production if they drafted Tom Brady.

Cam Newton, on the other hand, was a late-round pick in your league if he was even drafted at all. He's thrown for 854 yards, thrown three touchdowns and ran for two. The rushing touchdowns were expected, but no one thought he'd do what he's been doing thus far. Yes, he has four interceptions, but back-to-back 400-yard games have made those who did draft him likely hate themselves for not putting him in the lineup.

Here are some other names who have come out of relative obscurity to become a force in fantasy leagues. Many are on rosters, but if you see their name on the free agent pile, pick it off and enjoy.

Kenny Britt, WR, Tennessee
Britt had off-the-field issues and is in an offense not many expected from - especially with Matt Hasslebeck under center and uncertainty of Chris Johnson's contract. But Britt has rewarded those who took a chance on him with 14 catches for 271 yards and three touchdowns in two weeks. It's hard to imagine him staying at that pace, but he's certainly a starting option each week.

Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB, Buffalo
Here's another signal caller who either went undrafted or went late as a team's QB2 or QB3. All he's done is throw for 472 yards and seven touchdowns in two weeks. Roscoe Parrish's injury may be of concern, but many people's sleeper pick has looked brilliant thus far.

Mike Tolbert, RB, San Diego
No one was quite sure what to do with the Chargers' backfield. Ryan Matthews and Tolbert's roles were undefined, but Tolbert is proving to be the better option at this point. He's only run for 45 yards in two games, but he's been a PPR beast with 17 catches for 131 yards. His three total TDs (two rush, one receiving) have made him a great RB2 or flex option. Note: Matthews has been no slouch, rushing for 109 yards, catching 10 passes for 135 and scoring once.

Rex Grossman, QB, Washington
Yes, it's that Rex Grossman. But the Skins' signal caller has nearly 600 yards and four touchdowns. He does have two picks, but if used the right way he can be an adequate fill-in for injury or byes. Or, use him in a timeshare, playing the matchups.

Fred Davis, TE, Washington
He's been the biggest beneficiary to Grossman's play, catching 11 passes for 191 yards and a score. His numbers look a lot better than Antonio Gates 0 catches for 0 yards in Week 2.

Darren Sproles, RB, New Orleans
If you're in a standard-scoring league, chances are Sproles is a bye-week fill-in at best. If you're in a PPR league, Sproles' 15 receptions has made him almost a must-start for those getting a point per catch.

Don't believe the hype:

Chad Henne, QB, Miami
Henne's 586 passing yards and four touchdowns (three passing, one rushing) look impressive. But he already has two picks and his numbers are unimpressive when you take out his 400-yard Week 1 showing.

Thursday, July 21, 2011

Football looks to be coming back

With the NFL owners and players apparently nearing a final deal and the season likely to begin on time, fantasy football players are likely back in the fantasy football mood.

It's been a tough offseason not knowing what was going to happen next and even if the NFL would kick off on time. But now there's a lot of questions to be answered for those who enjoy getting a jump start on their draft preparation.

There's always questions about who's going to be "the man" with this team or who's going to be the No. 2 guy with that team. There's always the who's hurt, who's old, who's been fading, but this season is offering a lot of questions that have a lot of domino effects.

NFL teams have had NO opportunity to trade players or sign free agents. For fantasy football enthusiasts, this has given them NO opportunity to see whose draft stock has risen or whose has fallen.

Here are a few names whose free agency (or trade) fate will have a lot of names jumping around draft boards:

Kevin Kolb, QB
He's still under contract with the Eagles, but with Michael Vick's comeback fully complete, there's little reason to think Andy Reid will keep Kolb on the roster in Philly. The Eagles were a good team last year, and with every team in a mad dash to sign free agents the Eagles may opt to trade Kolb for some immediate help. Arizona would be a great fit for Kolb, whose presence would boost that of him and Larry Fitzgerald, whose output suffered with a list of washed ups and no-names last season.

Carson Palmer, QB
Palmer has said he would rather retire than play in Cincinnati, and the Bengals are in no position to just let him walk away from the sport. Palmer is another intriguing name who could wind up on a team with a rookie QB in need of a veteran to fill the gap. Minnesota would be a good fit for Palmer, who would benefit from having Adrian Peterson to hand off to, and it would immediately boost the Vikes' receivers who have to otherwise wonder if Christian Ponder is going to be any good right away.

Matt Hasselbeck, QB
Here's another late-in-his-career signal caller who could provide a veteran presence for a team like Oakland, Carolina, Arizona or Minnesota. He'd be a step up for many teams under center and could provide a boost to a receiver on his next stop.

DeAngelo Williams, RB
Williams is under 30, multi-dimensional and could provide a boost for teams hunting for a running back such as Arizona, Denver and Miami. The Panthers have Jonathan Stewart blossoming into his prime, and a move for Williams to either city (or state, I guess) would immediately drop the likes of Beanie Wells or Knowshon Moreno down boards, and a feature-back role could lift Williams into the first or second round of your draft.

Ahmad Bradshaw, RB
Bradshaw also had to deal with RB-by-committee issues in New York, where he and Brandon Jacobs split duties. Bradshaw was still a very productive back and a solid No. 2 or 3 back last season. He could greatly help his cause with a move to a location in need of a feature back, or he could be mired in another sharing role in the backfield.

Sidney Rice, WR
Rice would love to play with a QB who can get him the ball (see Brett Favre 2009) and not one who's going to struggle (see Favre 2010). His injury comeback went well, and the Vikings would be wise to keep him in tow to help bring along Christian Ponder or offer whomever they decide to bring in a chance to throw to a quality receiver. A move out of Minnesota could boost Rice's value were he to be paired with a top-notch QB, giving him a few ticks up your board.

Randy Moss, Terrell Owens, Plaxico Burress, WRs
I can almost guarantee one of this trio will be a pretty good No. 2 receiver on your team. The problem? I have no idea which one it'll be. They all have had brilliant seasons in the past and have the physical skills to post something along the lines of 900 yards and 6 or 7 scores. The problem is it's a three-way crapshoot.

James Jones, WR
Some team is going to pay Jones No. 2 receiver money, and the Packers will let the drop-prone receiver go because they won't pay him the money. This will obviously benefit Jones' status and give him more touches, thus giving him a big jump up your draft board. The one name his departure from Green Bay benefits is Jordy Nelson. With Donald Driver aging and Nelson posting a stellar Super Bowl performance, Nelson will be the team's No. 2 receiver by midseason, even if Driver is still the "starter."

Zach Miller, TE
Take Miller out of Oakland and the Raiders' No. 1 receiving threat becomes ... uh ... anyway. Oakland would be more than wise to re-sign Miller, but he's young and can catch and block. A lot of teams would love a hybrid of his caliber, and the open market may lead Miller elsewhere.

Wednesday, August 25, 2010

Pros and cons of the “Big Four”

There appears to be little debate that four names are springing to the top of every fantasy football draft. Tennessee’s Chris Johnson, Minnesota’s Adrian Peterson, Jacksonville’s Maurice Jones-Drew and Baltimore’s Ray Rice are the consensus top four in nearly every mock draft seen out there, and chances are the quartet will be the first four picks in your draft in some order.

Each has reasons for optimism, but there are also reasons for skepticism. Here’s a look at all four along with their plusses and minuses:


Chris Johnson

He turned out to be a steal for some lucky late first-round drafter in 2009. He ran for 2,006 yards and 15 scores and caught 50 passes for 503 yards and two more scores. He fell on most draft boards because of LenDale White, who turned out to be a stiff and eventually was sent out of town.

Pros: White is gone, meaning there’s little reason to think anyone else will get any carries (or catches). He is perhaps the fastest player in the NFL and has the ability to run past likely every defender in the league if he gets the edge. He’s a vital aspect of the Titans’ passing game, which is evidenced by his 93 catches the past two seasons.
Cons: He is a sleight 191 pounds, which raises questions of durability. Also, it is unprecedented for a player to break off as many long plays as Johnson did last season for two straight years. There is always the question of Vince Young, also, and can he present enough of a passing threat to keep teams from loading the box on Johnson. Will he get goalline carries?

Adrian Peterson
He ran for nearly 1,400 yards last season and 18 scores while catching a surprising 43 passes. His rushing totals were down more than 400 yards and he carried 49 less times.

Pros: His more than doubled his number of receptions from 2008, which gives him a boost for many points-per-reception drafters. He gets the opportunity to run behind one of the NFL’s best offensive lines and the return of Brett Favre gives the Vikings a more threatening passing game to opposing defense. Chester Taylor has departed, and Toby Gerhardt is the only option behind Peterson.
Cons: He fumbled seven times last year and has fumbled 20 times in the past three. He’s lost 13 fumbles in the past three years. Can he continue to catch passes at last year’s rate? Will Favre be the same Brett Favre we saw in 2009 to take any pressure off Peterson? Will the utter lack of receivers hurt that passing game, again putting more pressure on Peterson?

Maurice Jones-Drew
He had a combined 1,765 yards from scrimmage last season and scored 16 times in his first season without sharing time with Fred Taylor.

Pros: Who else is going to take carries away from MJD? The Jaguars have no viable option to share carries with Jones-Drew, meaning he’ll get the lion’s share of carries. A good pass catcher, MJD has caught 40 or more passes the past four seasons. He’s also the goalline
Cons: The remainder of the offense isn’t exactly going to scare anybody, meaning more attention could be focused squarely on the small-statured Jones-Drew. Last season was the first time in his career he carried more than 200 times in a season, so can he handle the workload for the second straight season without breaking down?

Ray Rice
He surprised some with more than 2,000 total yards last season. He scored eight touchdowns for the playoff-bound Ravens.

Pros: He catches the ball – a lot. His 78 receptions would be a respectable number for most wide receivers. He averaged more than 5 yards per carry, showing the ability to stretch out runs with his moves and speed. The addition of Anquan Boldin could potentially stretch the field and open running lanes for Rice.
Cons: Willis McGahee is a goalline vulture for the guy. McGahee ran for 500-plus yards and scored 12 touchdowns. Most Rice owners last year probably got sick of McGahee jogging into the game when the team crept inside the 5-yard line. The addition of Boldin could also affect how many looks Rice gets in the passing game and take some points in those PPR leagues.

Saturday, July 17, 2010

Fantasy football magazines? Not yet

Poor fantasy baseball. As the month of July nears its end, fantasy sports fanatics are starting to realize that NFL teams will be reporting to camp in a matter of weeks. The fantasy baseball team becomes less of a priority to some, knowing that the NFL's 32 teams will be reporting to college dorms for some shoulder pad and shorts practices.

Training camp may mean little to many, but there are a lot of fantasy football nuts who will be keeping a close eye on many camps. Fantasy football draft guides are already popping up on store shelves, but they're somewhat useless this time of year. It's hard to truly gague what's going to happen when the NFL kicks off in early September by mid-July.

Fantasy football magazines can be a valuable asset, but they're definitely not worth the hassle right now. They'll be a waste of $10. It's safe to say that you can find the easy rankings (you know, rounds 1 through 3) on the Internet, or you probably have a good idea that Chris Johnson should go No. 1 in any format.

I'm not saying fantasy mags are useless. They can be great for depth charts or can serve as a good basis of camp battles to watch.

I've been in drafts in the past where someone is going off a magazine and didn't realize Tatum Bell was injured and grabbed him in one of the top two or three rounds. People forget that those mags were published way before the season to get a jump on all the other companies.

If you're going to get a fantasy football magazine, buy it later when you're getting closer to the draft. Try to find one with the latest published date. Use tham as a basis for your Internet research. Use them for some rookies to look into. Use them to see which RB battles are out there or what teams are pondering a RB-by-committee.

By all means, don't think a fantasy football mag is the end-all, be-all answer to your draft night. It will only cost you in the end. You will end up thinking Josh Cribbs is a third-round pick or the Raiders are top 10s at every position.

Wednesday, May 19, 2010

Under the Radar (for now)

Drafting a fantasy football team can be pretty easy – at least in the first few rounds. If you’re picking No. 1, you’re taking Chris Johnson this year.
Anyone can stick to a rating sheet and have fairly good success in the early rounds.
But what about some of those guys you’ve never heard of whom you may pass on because a bigger “name” is out there.
Sometimes it’s better to have an eye on some lesser-known names you may be able to steal in later rounds. Some of these names may unfortunately jump to a higher level of prominence throughout training camp and exhibition games, but they're worth keeping an eye on if they dont.
Here are a few to keep on your radar:

Montario Hardesty, RB, Cleveland
Jerone Harrison hasn’t signed his contract tender yet, meaning the the rookie out of Tennessee is at least getting the chance to nudge his way into some carries.
Before last season, Harrison was a little-known name, and what’s to say he wasn’t a one-year fluke?
The 5-11 1/2, 225-pound Hardesty is considered a “banger” by the Browns and could end up stealing some goalline carries and will like steal some others along the way. He’s not a bad fourth or fifth running back option on your roster and could wind up being a good No. 2 back or flex option by the end of the season.

Derek Anderson, QB, Arizona Cardinals
Yes, I know you invested a somewhat early-round pick on Anderson in 2008 only to have him on the waiver wire in a matter of weeks.
But take a look at the Cardinals’ situation under center, and Anderson could turn into a more-than-viable backup signal caller for your team. With Larry Fitzgerald and Steve Breaston to throw to, Anderson could look like his 2008 self when Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow were catching a load of passes.
Obviously, Anderson will have to beat out Matt Leinart for the starting job, but Leinart hasn’t exactly been a dominant NFL QB during his time in the league.
Monitor the situation, but don’t be shy about making Anderson one of your last picks in this year’s draft if Leinart plays like he has in recent years.

Early Doucet, WR, Arizona Cardinals
Obviously, the quarterback situation will play into his performance this season, but with Breaston and Fitzgerald as the Nos. 1 and 2 receiving options, Doucet could be in for a third-wheel performance a la Breaston in recent years.
The third-year receiver will have the opportunity to be on the field a lot in three-receiver sets, but one can only hope Leinart or Anderson doesn’t rely too heavily on Fitzgerald – a likely assumption, because who wouldn’t rely on his sticky fingers?
Doucet could be a good first-off-your-bench receiver find in late rounds.

Alge Crumpler, TE, New England Patriots
He was once considered one of the top tight ends in the league (outside of the Antonio Gates, Tony Gonzalez group at the top), but his numbers have fallen considerably in recent years.
A change of scenery didn’t make him a star in Tennessee, but a new scenery that has Tom Brady throwing you the football doesn’t hurt.
The Pats did draft two tight ends this offseason, but Crumpler looks to be primed for a starting role in Foxboro this fall.
This has the makings of a bounce-back season for Crumpler, but a lot depends on how much Brady relies on Wes Welker and Randy Moss – and to a lesser extend Julian Edelman.
He’s worth a third-to-last round pick because your kicker and defense should be found in those last two rounds.