There appears to be little debate that four names are springing to the top of every fantasy football draft. Tennessee’s Chris Johnson, Minnesota’s Adrian Peterson, Jacksonville’s Maurice Jones-Drew and Baltimore’s Ray Rice are the consensus top four in nearly every mock draft seen out there, and chances are the quartet will be the first four picks in your draft in some order.
Each has reasons for optimism, but there are also reasons for skepticism. Here’s a look at all four along with their plusses and minuses:
Chris Johnson
He turned out to be a steal for some lucky late first-round drafter in 2009. He ran for 2,006 yards and 15 scores and caught 50 passes for 503 yards and two more scores. He fell on most draft boards because of LenDale White, who turned out to be a stiff and eventually was sent out of town.
Pros: White is gone, meaning there’s little reason to think anyone else will get any carries (or catches). He is perhaps the fastest player in the NFL and has the ability to run past likely every defender in the league if he gets the edge. He’s a vital aspect of the Titans’ passing game, which is evidenced by his 93 catches the past two seasons.
Cons: He is a sleight 191 pounds, which raises questions of durability. Also, it is unprecedented for a player to break off as many long plays as Johnson did last season for two straight years. There is always the question of Vince Young, also, and can he present enough of a passing threat to keep teams from loading the box on Johnson. Will he get goalline carries?
Adrian Peterson
He ran for nearly 1,400 yards last season and 18 scores while catching a surprising 43 passes. His rushing totals were down more than 400 yards and he carried 49 less times.
Pros: His more than doubled his number of receptions from 2008, which gives him a boost for many points-per-reception drafters. He gets the opportunity to run behind one of the NFL’s best offensive lines and the return of Brett Favre gives the Vikings a more threatening passing game to opposing defense. Chester Taylor has departed, and Toby Gerhardt is the only option behind Peterson.
Cons: He fumbled seven times last year and has fumbled 20 times in the past three. He’s lost 13 fumbles in the past three years. Can he continue to catch passes at last year’s rate? Will Favre be the same Brett Favre we saw in 2009 to take any pressure off Peterson? Will the utter lack of receivers hurt that passing game, again putting more pressure on Peterson?
Maurice Jones-Drew
He had a combined 1,765 yards from scrimmage last season and scored 16 times in his first season without sharing time with Fred Taylor.
Pros: Who else is going to take carries away from MJD? The Jaguars have no viable option to share carries with Jones-Drew, meaning he’ll get the lion’s share of carries. A good pass catcher, MJD has caught 40 or more passes the past four seasons. He’s also the goalline
Cons: The remainder of the offense isn’t exactly going to scare anybody, meaning more attention could be focused squarely on the small-statured Jones-Drew. Last season was the first time in his career he carried more than 200 times in a season, so can he handle the workload for the second straight season without breaking down?
Ray Rice
He surprised some with more than 2,000 total yards last season. He scored eight touchdowns for the playoff-bound Ravens.
Pros: He catches the ball – a lot. His 78 receptions would be a respectable number for most wide receivers. He averaged more than 5 yards per carry, showing the ability to stretch out runs with his moves and speed. The addition of Anquan Boldin could potentially stretch the field and open running lanes for Rice.
Cons: Willis McGahee is a goalline vulture for the guy. McGahee ran for 500-plus yards and scored 12 touchdowns. Most Rice owners last year probably got sick of McGahee jogging into the game when the team crept inside the 5-yard line. The addition of Boldin could also affect how many looks Rice gets in the passing game and take some points in those PPR leagues.
Wednesday, August 25, 2010
Saturday, July 17, 2010
Fantasy football magazines? Not yet
Poor fantasy baseball. As the month of July nears its end, fantasy sports fanatics are starting to realize that NFL teams will be reporting to camp in a matter of weeks. The fantasy baseball team becomes less of a priority to some, knowing that the NFL's 32 teams will be reporting to college dorms for some shoulder pad and shorts practices.
Training camp may mean little to many, but there are a lot of fantasy football nuts who will be keeping a close eye on many camps. Fantasy football draft guides are already popping up on store shelves, but they're somewhat useless this time of year. It's hard to truly gague what's going to happen when the NFL kicks off in early September by mid-July.
Fantasy football magazines can be a valuable asset, but they're definitely not worth the hassle right now. They'll be a waste of $10. It's safe to say that you can find the easy rankings (you know, rounds 1 through 3) on the Internet, or you probably have a good idea that Chris Johnson should go No. 1 in any format.
I'm not saying fantasy mags are useless. They can be great for depth charts or can serve as a good basis of camp battles to watch.
I've been in drafts in the past where someone is going off a magazine and didn't realize Tatum Bell was injured and grabbed him in one of the top two or three rounds. People forget that those mags were published way before the season to get a jump on all the other companies.
If you're going to get a fantasy football magazine, buy it later when you're getting closer to the draft. Try to find one with the latest published date. Use tham as a basis for your Internet research. Use them for some rookies to look into. Use them to see which RB battles are out there or what teams are pondering a RB-by-committee.
By all means, don't think a fantasy football mag is the end-all, be-all answer to your draft night. It will only cost you in the end. You will end up thinking Josh Cribbs is a third-round pick or the Raiders are top 10s at every position.
Training camp may mean little to many, but there are a lot of fantasy football nuts who will be keeping a close eye on many camps. Fantasy football draft guides are already popping up on store shelves, but they're somewhat useless this time of year. It's hard to truly gague what's going to happen when the NFL kicks off in early September by mid-July.
Fantasy football magazines can be a valuable asset, but they're definitely not worth the hassle right now. They'll be a waste of $10. It's safe to say that you can find the easy rankings (you know, rounds 1 through 3) on the Internet, or you probably have a good idea that Chris Johnson should go No. 1 in any format.
I'm not saying fantasy mags are useless. They can be great for depth charts or can serve as a good basis of camp battles to watch.
I've been in drafts in the past where someone is going off a magazine and didn't realize Tatum Bell was injured and grabbed him in one of the top two or three rounds. People forget that those mags were published way before the season to get a jump on all the other companies.
If you're going to get a fantasy football magazine, buy it later when you're getting closer to the draft. Try to find one with the latest published date. Use tham as a basis for your Internet research. Use them for some rookies to look into. Use them to see which RB battles are out there or what teams are pondering a RB-by-committee.
By all means, don't think a fantasy football mag is the end-all, be-all answer to your draft night. It will only cost you in the end. You will end up thinking Josh Cribbs is a third-round pick or the Raiders are top 10s at every position.
Wednesday, May 19, 2010
Under the Radar (for now)
Drafting a fantasy football team can be pretty easy – at least in the first few rounds. If you’re picking No. 1, you’re taking Chris Johnson this year.
Anyone can stick to a rating sheet and have fairly good success in the early rounds.
But what about some of those guys you’ve never heard of whom you may pass on because a bigger “name” is out there.
Sometimes it’s better to have an eye on some lesser-known names you may be able to steal in later rounds. Some of these names may unfortunately jump to a higher level of prominence throughout training camp and exhibition games, but they're worth keeping an eye on if they dont.
Here are a few to keep on your radar:
Montario Hardesty, RB, Cleveland
Jerone Harrison hasn’t signed his contract tender yet, meaning the the rookie out of Tennessee is at least getting the chance to nudge his way into some carries.
Before last season, Harrison was a little-known name, and what’s to say he wasn’t a one-year fluke?
The 5-11 1/2, 225-pound Hardesty is considered a “banger” by the Browns and could end up stealing some goalline carries and will like steal some others along the way. He’s not a bad fourth or fifth running back option on your roster and could wind up being a good No. 2 back or flex option by the end of the season.
Derek Anderson, QB, Arizona Cardinals
Yes, I know you invested a somewhat early-round pick on Anderson in 2008 only to have him on the waiver wire in a matter of weeks.
But take a look at the Cardinals’ situation under center, and Anderson could turn into a more-than-viable backup signal caller for your team. With Larry Fitzgerald and Steve Breaston to throw to, Anderson could look like his 2008 self when Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow were catching a load of passes.
Obviously, Anderson will have to beat out Matt Leinart for the starting job, but Leinart hasn’t exactly been a dominant NFL QB during his time in the league.
Monitor the situation, but don’t be shy about making Anderson one of your last picks in this year’s draft if Leinart plays like he has in recent years.
Early Doucet, WR, Arizona Cardinals
Obviously, the quarterback situation will play into his performance this season, but with Breaston and Fitzgerald as the Nos. 1 and 2 receiving options, Doucet could be in for a third-wheel performance a la Breaston in recent years.
The third-year receiver will have the opportunity to be on the field a lot in three-receiver sets, but one can only hope Leinart or Anderson doesn’t rely too heavily on Fitzgerald – a likely assumption, because who wouldn’t rely on his sticky fingers?
Doucet could be a good first-off-your-bench receiver find in late rounds.
Alge Crumpler, TE, New England Patriots
He was once considered one of the top tight ends in the league (outside of the Antonio Gates, Tony Gonzalez group at the top), but his numbers have fallen considerably in recent years.
A change of scenery didn’t make him a star in Tennessee, but a new scenery that has Tom Brady throwing you the football doesn’t hurt.
The Pats did draft two tight ends this offseason, but Crumpler looks to be primed for a starting role in Foxboro this fall.
This has the makings of a bounce-back season for Crumpler, but a lot depends on how much Brady relies on Wes Welker and Randy Moss – and to a lesser extend Julian Edelman.
He’s worth a third-to-last round pick because your kicker and defense should be found in those last two rounds.
Anyone can stick to a rating sheet and have fairly good success in the early rounds.
But what about some of those guys you’ve never heard of whom you may pass on because a bigger “name” is out there.
Sometimes it’s better to have an eye on some lesser-known names you may be able to steal in later rounds. Some of these names may unfortunately jump to a higher level of prominence throughout training camp and exhibition games, but they're worth keeping an eye on if they dont.
Here are a few to keep on your radar:
Montario Hardesty, RB, Cleveland
Jerone Harrison hasn’t signed his contract tender yet, meaning the the rookie out of Tennessee is at least getting the chance to nudge his way into some carries.
Before last season, Harrison was a little-known name, and what’s to say he wasn’t a one-year fluke?
The 5-11 1/2, 225-pound Hardesty is considered a “banger” by the Browns and could end up stealing some goalline carries and will like steal some others along the way. He’s not a bad fourth or fifth running back option on your roster and could wind up being a good No. 2 back or flex option by the end of the season.
Derek Anderson, QB, Arizona Cardinals
Yes, I know you invested a somewhat early-round pick on Anderson in 2008 only to have him on the waiver wire in a matter of weeks.
But take a look at the Cardinals’ situation under center, and Anderson could turn into a more-than-viable backup signal caller for your team. With Larry Fitzgerald and Steve Breaston to throw to, Anderson could look like his 2008 self when Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow were catching a load of passes.
Obviously, Anderson will have to beat out Matt Leinart for the starting job, but Leinart hasn’t exactly been a dominant NFL QB during his time in the league.
Monitor the situation, but don’t be shy about making Anderson one of your last picks in this year’s draft if Leinart plays like he has in recent years.
Early Doucet, WR, Arizona Cardinals
Obviously, the quarterback situation will play into his performance this season, but with Breaston and Fitzgerald as the Nos. 1 and 2 receiving options, Doucet could be in for a third-wheel performance a la Breaston in recent years.
The third-year receiver will have the opportunity to be on the field a lot in three-receiver sets, but one can only hope Leinart or Anderson doesn’t rely too heavily on Fitzgerald – a likely assumption, because who wouldn’t rely on his sticky fingers?
Doucet could be a good first-off-your-bench receiver find in late rounds.
Alge Crumpler, TE, New England Patriots
He was once considered one of the top tight ends in the league (outside of the Antonio Gates, Tony Gonzalez group at the top), but his numbers have fallen considerably in recent years.
A change of scenery didn’t make him a star in Tennessee, but a new scenery that has Tom Brady throwing you the football doesn’t hurt.
The Pats did draft two tight ends this offseason, but Crumpler looks to be primed for a starting role in Foxboro this fall.
This has the makings of a bounce-back season for Crumpler, but a lot depends on how much Brady relies on Wes Welker and Randy Moss – and to a lesser extend Julian Edelman.
He’s worth a third-to-last round pick because your kicker and defense should be found in those last two rounds.
Wednesday, May 12, 2010
Free agents' decisions could affect your season
While NFL teams still look over the free agent market, chances are there aren’t many names fantasy football owners are focused on.
Most of the names you want to know about already have a team and a role, but there are some free agents whose new homes could affect your draft day strategy.
Quarterback
J.P. Losman
Losman has the Tommie Maddox mystique about him. Never finding a groove in the NFL, Maddox went on to be the MVP of the short-lived XFL. Losman had the same troubled NFL start and ended up being a star in the first season of the UFL. He won’t be a starter for anybody right away, but he has the potential to have a standout season if he ends up on a team with an injured QB. I could see him being Sam Bradford insurance in St. Louis – and the Rams know a thing or two about QBs from lesser leagues stepping in for an injured quarterback. You know, that grocery bagging Arena Football League guy who brought the Gateway City a Lombardi Trophy.
Running Back
Aaron Stecker
Stecker has had a taste of fantasy football success in the past – mostly as an injury fill-in with the Saints. That’s exactly why he’s at least worth keeping on your radar. He’ll never be a star in the league, but he could end up being a must-have handcuff if he ends up being the No. 2 option behind your first- or second-round pick.
Wide Receiver
Terrell Owens
The malcontent is a gamble no matter what team he goes to, but he’ll never be a horrible bench receiver if you can land him late without reaching for him or hoping he becomes your No. 2 receiver.
T.O.’s biggest effect on fantasy football could be to the other receivers of the team he ends up with. Put him in a situation where you have a borderline crew of receivers, and it could make the entire group not worth your time.
Tight End
Billy Miller
The "he may be pretty good" mystique of Miller has worn off, but there could still be something there. Put in the right situation, he could turn into a decent bye-week tight end.
Kicker
Matt Stover
Stover is one of those guys nobody drafts but ends up being a starter by Week 5 or 6. There’s no reason to think that, even if he doesn’t break camp with a team, he won’t be kicking for some team this season. NFL teams love to fire kickers after a few missed shots and scour the scrap heap for a replacement. Stover should be at the top of that heap.
Most of the names you want to know about already have a team and a role, but there are some free agents whose new homes could affect your draft day strategy.
Quarterback
J.P. Losman
Losman has the Tommie Maddox mystique about him. Never finding a groove in the NFL, Maddox went on to be the MVP of the short-lived XFL. Losman had the same troubled NFL start and ended up being a star in the first season of the UFL. He won’t be a starter for anybody right away, but he has the potential to have a standout season if he ends up on a team with an injured QB. I could see him being Sam Bradford insurance in St. Louis – and the Rams know a thing or two about QBs from lesser leagues stepping in for an injured quarterback. You know, that grocery bagging Arena Football League guy who brought the Gateway City a Lombardi Trophy.
Running Back
Aaron Stecker
Stecker has had a taste of fantasy football success in the past – mostly as an injury fill-in with the Saints. That’s exactly why he’s at least worth keeping on your radar. He’ll never be a star in the league, but he could end up being a must-have handcuff if he ends up being the No. 2 option behind your first- or second-round pick.
Wide Receiver
Terrell Owens
The malcontent is a gamble no matter what team he goes to, but he’ll never be a horrible bench receiver if you can land him late without reaching for him or hoping he becomes your No. 2 receiver.
T.O.’s biggest effect on fantasy football could be to the other receivers of the team he ends up with. Put him in a situation where you have a borderline crew of receivers, and it could make the entire group not worth your time.
Tight End
Billy Miller
The "he may be pretty good" mystique of Miller has worn off, but there could still be something there. Put in the right situation, he could turn into a decent bye-week tight end.
Kicker
Matt Stover
Stover is one of those guys nobody drafts but ends up being a starter by Week 5 or 6. There’s no reason to think that, even if he doesn’t break camp with a team, he won’t be kicking for some team this season. NFL teams love to fire kickers after a few missed shots and scour the scrap heap for a replacement. Stover should be at the top of that heap.
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