Pros and cons of the “Big Four”

There appears to be little debate that four names are springing to the top of every fantasy football draft. Tennessee’s Chris Johnson, Minnesota’s Adrian Peterson, Jacksonville’s Maurice Jones-Drew and Baltimore’s Ray Rice are the consensus top four in nearly every mock draft seen out there, and chances are the quartet will be the first four picks in your draft in some order.

Each has reasons for optimism, but there are also reasons for skepticism. Here’s a look at all four along with their plusses and minuses:


Chris Johnson
He turned out to be a steal for some lucky late first-round drafter in 2009. He ran for 2,006 yards and 15 scores and caught 50 passes for 503 yards and two more scores. He fell on most draft boards because of LenDale White, who turned out to be a stiff and eventually was sent out of town.

Pros: White is gone, meaning there’s little reason to think anyone else will get any carries (or catches). He is perhaps the fastest player in the NFL and has the ability to run past likely every defender in the league if he gets the edge. He’s a vital aspect of the Titans’ passing game, which is evidenced by his 93 catches the past two seasons.
Cons: He is a sleight 191 pounds, which raises questions of durability. Also, it is unprecedented for a player to break off as many long plays as Johnson did last season for two straight years. There is always the question of Vince Young, also, and can he present enough of a passing threat to keep teams from loading the box on Johnson. Will he get goalline carries?

Adrian Peterson
He ran for nearly 1,400 yards last season and 18 scores while catching a surprising 43 passes. His rushing totals were down more than 400 yards and he carried 49 less times.

Pros: His more than doubled his number of receptions from 2008, which gives him a boost for many points-per-reception drafters. He gets the opportunity to run behind one of the NFL’s best offensive lines and the return of Brett Favre gives the Vikings a more threatening passing game to opposing defense. Chester Taylor has departed, and Toby Gerhardt is the only option behind Peterson.
Cons: He fumbled seven times last year and has fumbled 20 times in the past three. He’s lost 13 fumbles in the past three years. Can he continue to catch passes at last year’s rate? Will Favre be the same Brett Favre we saw in 2009 to take any pressure off Peterson? Will the utter lack of receivers hurt that passing game, again putting more pressure on Peterson?

Maurice Jones-Drew
He had a combined 1,765 yards from scrimmage last season and scored 16 times in his first season without sharing time with Fred Taylor.

Pros: Who else is going to take carries away from MJD? The Jaguars have no viable option to share carries with Jones-Drew, meaning he’ll get the lion’s share of carries. A good pass catcher, MJD has caught 40 or more passes the past four seasons. He’s also the goalline
Cons: The remainder of the offense isn’t exactly going to scare anybody, meaning more attention could be focused squarely on the small-statured Jones-Drew. Last season was the first time in his career he carried more than 200 times in a season, so can he handle the workload for the second straight season without breaking down?

Ray Rice
He surprised some with more than 2,000 total yards last season. He scored eight touchdowns for the playoff-bound Ravens.

Pros: He catches the ball – a lot. His 78 receptions would be a respectable number for most wide receivers. He averaged more than 5 yards per carry, showing the ability to stretch out runs with his moves and speed. The addition of Anquan Boldin could potentially stretch the field and open running lanes for Rice.
Cons: Willis McGahee is a goalline vulture for the guy. McGahee ran for 500-plus yards and scored 12 touchdowns. Most Rice owners last year probably got sick of McGahee jogging into the game when the team crept inside the 5-yard line. The addition of Boldin could also affect how many looks Rice gets in the passing game and take some points in those PPR leagues.